การประเมินพื้นฐานเชิงปริมาณเพื่อการพัฒนาแนวทางการจัดการบรรเทาผลกระทบจากภัยคุกคามของมนุษย์และสภาพการเปลี่ยนแปลงภูมิอากาศต่อนกและสัตว์เลี้ยงลูกด้วยนมที่เป็นชนิดพันธุ์บ่งชี้ทางนิเวศวิทยา

Biodiversity provides an enormous amount of essential, yet free services to people (Albert et al. 2021), and Southeast Asia is among the most biodiverse regions in the world, home to four of the Earth's 34 biodiversity hotspots and supporting a large number of endemic species (de Bruyn et al. 2014). However, the biological richness of Southeast Asia is highly endangered by a suite of anthropogenic threats, including land conversion (Hughes 2017), over-exploitation of natural resources (Cushman et al. 2017; Hughes 2017), and over-hunting (Gray et al. 2018; Harrison et al. 2016). Southeast Asia has some of the highest rates of habitat loss globally (Gaveau et al. 2016; Miettinen et al. 2011), while the over-hunting is driven by an increasing demand in Asia for wildlife products which in turn drives a large black-market trade in wildlife and wildlife products (Wyatt et al. 2018), including the pet trade (Harris et al. 2017).

Among the most impactful causes of land conversion in the region are deforestation for monocultures such as palm oil (Azhar et al. 2017), urbanization (Zhao et al. 2018) and other human activities, especially road development (Kaszta et al. 2020) which also exacerbates rates of over-hunting (Gray et al. 2018). In addition to these ongoing threats, is the additional threat of climate change (Brodie et al. 2012), which has probably already shifted the elevation ranges upward of approximately 17% of Southeast Asia’s birds (Peh 2007). Climate change is also affecting regional rainfall patterns (Loo et al. 2015), which also likely affects the population growth of forest birds (Brawn et al. 2017). Finally, the region continues to lack sufficient human resource capacity in the field of biodiversity ecology and management, which continues to hinder effective biodiversity management (Giam & Wilcove 2012). Together the above factors are causing what many call a “biodiversity crisis” that is both global and regional (Davis et al. 2018).

The three subprojects in this proposal represent a subset of the above threats and drivers to the biodiversity crisis in Southeast Asia. Here in this Center of Excellence Proposal the CE lab will examine some of the details of two of these important human-driven factors affecting wildlife in Southeast Asia. First, relates to habitat loss, direct human disturbance (hunting, poaching) and climate change while the second theme relates to the illegal wildlife trade. The three subprojects include:

(1) Threat assessment for Sundaic Galliformes populations in the biodiversity hotspot of southern Thailand. Birds in the order Galliformes (jungle fowl, peafowl, etc.) are particularly useful indicators of biodiversity threats because they are relatively easy to identify, widespread and often highly impacted by variety of human threats particularly hunting (Brickle et al. 2008) and climate change (Savini et al. 2021). However, the level of ecological knowledge of the majority of Galliformes, especially in tropical forests, is poor. Habitat degradation and loss are ongoing, along with hunting pressure, decreasing Galliformes populations globally (Savini et al. 2021). Lowland forest habitat in the Sundaic (land area including Malay Peninsula, Java, Borneo, Sumatra, and their surrounding small islands) region is highly threatened (Verma et al. 2020), particularly in southern Thailand where >95% of the natural forest has been destroyed, replaced mostly by monoculture crops. These Sundaic forest losses are a major threat to bird diversity including Sudaic Galliformes species. The goals of this sub-project are to assess the distributions, habitats and population status of the Sundaic Galliformes (most of which are now rare and highly threatened) inhabiting some of the key forest areas of southern Thailand. These species are threatened by extensive habitat degradation and hunting pressure. We will first assess threats from hunting/poaching using SMART data (Spatial Monitoring And Reporting Tool (http:// smartconservationtools.org), and climate change projections to assess both direct threats to the species and long-term threats to the habitat. The general lack of quantitative field information on these Sundaic Galliformes species urgently needs to be addressed to establish new conservation and management action plans under the supervision of the Department of National Parks, Wildlife and Plant Conservation, Thailand (DNP). The project will establish systematic data collection on the presence-absence and abundance of these species at several sites in southern Thailand. The output will be used first to assess the remaining suitable habitat for these species throughout their Sundaic range in Thailand. Second, the data will be used to develop a long-term monitoring plan and a suitable conservation and management action plan for Sundaic forest Galliformes in southern Thailand as well as in other parts of Sundaic Southeast Asia.

(2) Impacts of changing rainfall patterns on the reproductive success, recruitment and survival of forest birds. The goal of this subproject will, like the Galliformes subproject, also assess long-term climate change impacts, but in this case at a fine scale. Although it is hypothesized that climate change will impact many species of birds in Southeast Asia (Peh 2007; Bagchi et al. 2013), the details are unknown particularly for species inhabiting areas without higher elevations to move to. In this subproject we will examine the likely responses and mechanisms driving changes in demographic parameters (particularly reproduction and survival). Here we will model the likely impacts of long-term changes in rainfall on selected forest birds by adding to as well as utilizing the long-term (9 years) of data from the long-term study plot at Sakaerat Environmental Research Station (SERS) (Nakhon Ratchasima Province) (Khamcha & Gale 2020). Forest passerine birds are useful biodiversity indicators for detailed environmental monitoring because they can be surveyed relatively easily compared to many other taxa, including reproductive success (as well as nest predation), recruitment (immigration of new birds into an area), and adult survival. This type of data collection has already begun at SERS (Khamcha et al. 2018; Somsiri et al. 2020). With other taxa, such as large mammals or reptiles monitoring would be significantly more expensive and the amount and quality of the data would be much less.

(3) Molecular tracing of confiscated otters: implications for combating illegal wildlife trade and regional otter conservation. As noted above, the illegal wildlife trade is among the key drivers of the regional biodiversity crisis. In Asia, the exotic pet trade has emerged as a threat to otters, particularly Asian small-clawed otter (Aonyx cinereus) and Smooth-coated otter (Lutrogale perspicillata). Although otters have recently been banned from international trade, they are still traded to satisfy the thriving pet market in Asia. Removal of individuals from wild breeding populations decreases population’s resilience and increases risks of extinction. Furthermore, the disappearance of this top predator will potentially have negative effects on prey composition, wetland ecosystem function and services. Thailand is the major trafficking hubs of otters however the scope of the trade and source populations of seized otters remain uncertain. The goal of this subproject is to (a) develop a spatial genetic database of wild otters in Thailand based on mitogenome haplotypes and microsatellite genotypes to:  (b) characterize regional genetic diversity of traded otters in Thailand and Japan, (c) improve reliability in tracing geographic origin of traded otters and infer trafficking hotspots using Bayesian assignment approach, (d) strengthen local capacity and regional collaboration in applying landscape genetics to combat illegal wildlife trade by organizing an annual international joint seminar to discuss conservation plan and scientific practices in Thailand and Japan. A reliable genetic database of wild populations is urgently needed to trace the geographic origins of traded animals, guide enforcement efforts and control illegal trade. Advances in genotyping technology and molecular techniques optimized for fecal DNA has enabled establishment of spatial genetic reference from environmental samples. In this study we will apply noninvasive sampling of wild and traded otters from four species and landscape genetics based on mitogenome and microsatellite diversity to assign seizures of unknown origin in Thailand and Japan to the mostly likely geographic sources. Key results on trafficking hotspots will provide evidence to identify populations at risk, inform wildlife crime investigation and management actions for otter recovery. This research highlights the potential of genetic resources and regional collaboration to enhance traceability of seizures and combat illegal wildlife trade.