Temporal Instability of Motorcycle Crash Fatalities on Local Roadways: A Random Parameters Approach with Heterogeneity in Means and Variances

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Authors/Editors


Strategic Research Themes


Publication Details

Author listChampahom, Thanapong; Se, Chamroeun; Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj; Boonyoo, Tassana; Leelamanothum, Amphaphorn; Ratanavaraha, Vatanavongs;

PublisherMDPI

Publication year2023

Journal acronymIJERPH

Volume number20

Issue number5

ISSN1661-7827

eISSN1660-4601

URLhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85149966225&doi=10.3390%2fijerph20053845&partnerID=40&md5=68e8ce2ebac234b524198ffa5d79ff96

LanguagesEnglish-Great Britain (EN-GB)


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Abstract

Motorcycle accidents can impede sustainable development due to the high fatality rate associated with motorcycle riders, particularly in developing countries. Although there has been extensive research conducted on motorcycle accidents on highways, there is a limited understanding of the factors contributing to accidents involving the most commonly used motorcycles on local roads. This study aimed to identify the root causes of fatal motorcycle accidents on local roads. The contributing factors consist of four groups: rider characteristics, maneuvers prior to the crash, temporal and environmental characteristics, and road characteristics. The study employed random parameters logit models with unobserved heterogeneity in means and variances while also incorporating the temporal instability principle. The results revealed that the data related to motorcycle accidents on local roads between 2018 and 2020 exhibited temporal variation. Numerous variables were discovered to influence the means and variances of the unobserved factors that were identified as random parameters. Male riders, riders over 50 years old, foreign riders, and accidents that occurred at night with inadequate lighting were identified as the primary factors that increased the risk of fatalities. This paper presents a clear policy recommendation aimed at organizations and identifies the relevant stakeholders, including the Department of Land Transport, traffic police, local government organizations, and academic groups. © 2023 by the authors.


Keywords

heterogeneity in means and varianceslocal roads in developing countriesmotorcyclist fatalityrider characteristicstemporal stability


Last updated on 2023-23-09 at 07:37