Epistemic uncertainty and stochastic analysis in the sugarcane production systems in Thailand – Quantifying the confidence in comparative results

Journal article

Authors/Editors

Strategic Research Themes

Publication Details

Author list: Ullah A., Silalertruksa T., Gheewala S.H.

Publisher: Elsevier

Publication year: 2020

Journal: Journal of Cleaner Production (0959-6526)

Volume number: 277

ISSN: 0959-6526

URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85090696341&doi=10.1016%2fj.jclepro.2020.124095&partnerID=40&md5=3dc543501d33f0061234a00aa5a7dd2a

Languages: English-Great Britain (EN-GB)

View in Web of Science | View on publisher site | View citing articles in Web of Science

Abstract

Field data collected from agriculture systems are often associated with large variability and uncertainty. Ignoring these uncertainties and using tentative single values of the parameters and the associated environmental impacts may lead to misleading results for policymakers. In Thailand, sugarcane production has been intensified to promote the sugar industry and to increase foreign exchange earnings, which eventually accelerated farm-level environmental impacts. Taking the case of sugarcane production in Thailand, this study aims to analyze the parameter uncertainty associated with the inputs, and uncertainty propagation to greenhouse gases and particulate matter emissions. To get a reliable insight and to overcome the limitations of using a deterministic approach, the effect of parameter uncertainty of sugarcane production systems has been computed and compared considering precision and effect size. The results clearly show that the credibility of the output obtained and conclusions drawn thereof are significantly compromised when data uncertainty is disregarded. In addition to analyzing the statistically significant differences among alternatives, incorporating the analysis of effect size greatly helps to investigate the importance of the differences among alternatives and the relevance of the uncertainty which cannot be captured by the differences in technology alone using a deterministic approach. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd

Keywords

Particulate matter emissions, Sugarcane production systems