Characterizing and forecasting the responses of tropical forest leaf phenology to El Nino by machine learning algorithms

บทความในวารสาร

ผู้เขียน/บรรณาธิการ

กลุ่มสาขาการวิจัยเชิงกลยุทธ์

รายละเอียดสำหรับงานพิมพ์

รายชื่อผู้แต่ง: Lamjiak, Taninnuch; Kaewthongrach, Rungnapa; Sirinaovakul, Booncharoen; Hanpattanakit, Phongthep;
Chithaisong, Amnat; Polvichai, Jumpol;

ผู้เผยแพร่: PLOS

ปีที่เผยแพร่ (ค.ศ.): 2021

Volume number: 16

Issue number: 8

นอก: 19326203

URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85113784394&doi=10.1371%2fjournal.pone.0255962&partnerID=40&md5=f64d9afdea673c2a5d5c891f0c17add3

ภาษา: English-Great Britain (EN-GB)

ดูในเว็บของวิทยาศาสตร์ | ดูบนเว็บไซต์ของสำนักพิมพ์ | บทความในเว็บของวิทยาศาสตร์

บทคัดย่อ

Climate change and global warming have serious adverse impacts on tropical forests. In particular, climate change may induce changes in leaf phenology. However, in tropical dry forests where tree diversity is high, species responses to climate change differ. The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of climate variability on the leaf phenology in Thailand's tropical forests. Machine learning approaches were applied to model how leaf phenology in dry dipterocarp forest in Thailand responds to climate variability and El Niño. First, we used a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) to cluster mature leaf phenology at the species level. Then, leaf phenology patterns in each group along with litterfall phenology and climate data were analyzed according to their response time. After that, a Long Short-Term Memory neural network (LSTM) was used to create model to predict leaf phenology in dry dipterocarp forest. The SOM-based clustering was able to classify 92.24% of the individual trees. The result of mapping the clustering data with lag time analysis revealed that each cluster has a different lag time depending on the timing and amount of rainfall. Incorporating the time lags improved the performance of the litterfall prediction model, reducing the average root mean square percent error (RMSPE) from 14.35% to 12.06%. This study should help researchers understand how each species responds to climate change. The litterfall prediction model will be useful for managing dry dipterocarp forest especially with regards to forest fires. © 2021 Lamjiak et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

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