Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Admission Competition Trends in the TCAS System: Assessment of Factors and Strategies for Enhancing Student Success at King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi

This study aimed to analyze and compare applicant data across each selection round for admission to three undergraduate programs in the Faculty of Architecture at King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi—namely, the Bachelor of Fine Arts in Media Arts, the Bachelor of Science in Media Technology, and the Bachelor of Science in Medical and Scientific Media—via the TCAS system. Using 8,230 applications from academic years 2019–2023, we sought to identify factors influencing successful admission through an examination of variations in competition rates and by forecasting future competition trends with an ARIMA model to inform recruitment planning and adjustment of admission criteria.

The factors found to affect applicants’ success were:

1.       Portfolio quality: Creative works that clearly convey the student’s personal identity tended to receive higher scores in the Portfolio round, which is the initial and determinative stage of selection.

2.       Admission criteria and seat quotas: Changes to program-specific criteria—such as increases or decreases in available seats—had a direct impact on competition rates and, consequently, applicants’ chances of acceptance.

3.       Major popularity trends: Fields with strong labor market demand or effective promotion—particularly the Graphic Design and Animation tracks within Media Arts—attracted larger applicant pools, driving up competition.

Analysis of competition rate differences showed that:

1.       Competition rates fluctuated markedly across academic years.

2.       Certain programs, especially highly popular majors, exhibited a steady increase in competition (e.g., Media Arts – Graphic Design and Animation).

3.       In the academic year 2021, competition peaked (Graphic Design at 20 applicants per seat; Animation at 17 applicants per seat), reflecting strong program demand.

4.       In the academic year 2023, although applicant numbers declined for some majors, competition remained high—particularly in the Media Technology and Medical and Scientific Media programs.

Keywords: TCAS, Portfolio, ARIMA Model, Admission Criteria